Systemic Stress Test for Swiss SMEs

The current geopolitical tensions, rising energy prices, and increasing trade conflicts do not act in isolation but simultaneously along global supply chains. For Swiss SMEs in industry, trade, and logistics, this results in a systemic stress test. This article explains why not individual factors are decisive, but their interplay – and why supply chain management is increasingly becoming a central control function.

By: Daniel Bubendorf

Context: More than a classic crisis

Current developments are often interpreted as a result of individual events – rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions, or trade policy conflicts. From the perspective of supply chain management, however, this view is too narrow. For Swiss SMEs in industry, trade, and logistics, there is currently no isolated problem, but a structural stress test along the entire value chain. The crucial change lies not in individual factors, but in their simultaneous effects.

Overlay of systemic influencing factors

The current situation is characterized by the combination of several developments:

• lasting effects of the Ukraine war
• increasing trade policy tensions in the global context
• geopolitical risks in the Middle East with direct impacts on energy supply

This overlay leads to increased volatility along global supply chains. Systems that have been optimized for efficiency and cost pressure over the years are increasingly reaching their limits.

Energy as a systemic driver

The current discussion often focuses on the oil price. However, for companies, the entire energy price structure is crucial.

Oil, gas, and electricity interact closely and influence all stages of value creation:

• Industry: energy-intensive production processes
• Trade: procurement costs and inventory management
• Logistics: transport and distribution costs

The effects occur in a cascading manner along the supply chain. Cost increases arise simultaneously in several areas and reinforce each other. A significant part of these effects occurs outside the company – at suppliers and in upstream processes. Energy is thus no longer just a cost factor but a connecting element that simultaneously influences costs, risks, and availability.

From trade conflict to global fragmentation

At the same time, the international trade environment is fundamentally changing. What was initially perceived as a tariff conflict between the USA and China has developed into a broader pattern. Trade policy instruments are increasingly being applied to other economic areas as well. Tariffs, subsidies, and regulatory interventions lead to a fragmentation of world trade. Global supply chains are supplemented or partially replaced by regional structures. For Swiss SMEs, this presents a specific challenge: they are rarely directly affected but almost always indirectly. As part of international value chains, changes have an immediate impact on procurement, production, and sales.

Industry, trade, and logistics equally affected

A central feature of the current development is the simultaneous impact on all actors along the supply chain. Industrial companies face rising production costs, volatile raw material prices, and uncertain supply chains. Trading companies struggle with increasing procurement costs, fluctuating availability, and growing complexity. Logistics companies are under pressure from rising energy and transport costs as well as increased demands for flexibility and stability. These effects do not act in isolation but reinforce each other. Disruptions in one area immediately transfer to other stages of the value chain.

Structural weaknesses become visible

The current pressure reveals structural deficits that were less visible in stable times.

In many companies, the following patterns emerge:

• lack of end-to-end transparency along the supply chain
• insufficient integration of cost, risk, and service perspectives
• strong dependence on operational coordination rather than structural control

These patterns allow for short-term stability but are only limitedly sustainable under increasing external pressure.

Implications for supply chain management

Current developments require a change in thinking. Supply chain management is increasingly evolving from an operational function to a central control discipline.

The focus is on:

• transparency regarding costs, risks, and dependencies along the entire value chain
• targeted diversification and securing of supplier and transport structures
• integration of industry, trade, and logistics into a common control logic
• building robust and simultaneously adaptable supply chain structures

Efficiency remains important but is no longer sufficient. Increasingly crucial is the ability to deal with uncertainty and respond to changes.

Conclusion

Current developments do not mark a short-term disruption but a structural change in the framework conditions. It is neither an isolated oil price shock nor a single trade conflict. Rather, it is a combination of energy price shifts and geopolitical fragmentation that affects the entire supply chain. For Swiss SMEs in industry, trade, and logistics, this means: the ability to understand and manage their own supply chain in an integrated manner is increasingly becoming a decisive competitive factor.

Daniel E. Bubendorf is the founder and owner of The Supply Chain Experts GmbH (SC-X). The consulting company, specialized in supply chain management and sustainability, primarily operates in Switzerland and offers tailored services for companies looking to optimize and make their supply chains more sustainable.

With many years of experience, SC-X supports industrial, trading, and logistics companies in ESG integration along global supply chains – with a particular focus on demanding and regulated logistics environments such as temperature-controlled processes.

www.sc-experts.ch