First Results of a Study on the Driver Shortage in Logistics

Capacity bottlenecks in logistics currently pose significant challenges for many companies. Although the shortage of drivers has been discussed for years and is becoming increasingly noticeable, there are still hardly any reliable figures available. This is where the consortium study “Addressing Capacity Bottlenecks in Logistics” comes in. Initial results are now available: A model for quantifying the shortage of drivers has been developed within the consortium. Quantitative insights, their causes and effects are being incorporated into the development of measures to address the shortage of drivers and its associated impacts.

(Arbon/Dresden/Würzburg-Schweinfurt) In February 2022, the consortium study was launched under the leadership of Professors Wolfgang Stölzle from Logistics Advisory Experts (a spin-off of the University of St. Gallen), Thorsten Schmidt from the Technical University of Dresden, and Christian Kille from the Institute for Applied Logistics at the University of Applied Sciences Würzburg-Schweinfurt FHWS. The goals of this consortium study are to collect concrete figures and their development in the future, to identify the causes and effects of the bottlenecks, and to compile suitable countermeasures. It is already clear: Without timely and appropriate countermeasures, bottlenecks in the transport market can lead to supply shortages in industry and trade – with far-reaching negative impacts on Germany’s economic location. The high significance of the topic is also underscored by the composition of the consortium: 16 companies, 5 associations, and an operator of a digital platform.

Interim Result 1: Measurement of the Shortage of Drivers

The study team has developed a new approach specifically for calculating the shortage of drivers in road freight transport with trucks over 3.5 tons payload. It is based on statistical data from the Federal Employment Agency, the Federal Office for Goods Transport, the Federal Motor Transport Authority, the Federal Statistical Office, and the Professional Association for Transport, as well as insights from a recent survey of companies in road freight transport. According to initial evaluations, around 40,000 positions for drivers were unfilled at the end of 2021. Particularly concerning is that without effective countermeasures, the additional deficit could increase by up to 20,000 unfilled positions annually. This means that there could currently be up to 60,000 positions open. This corresponds to about 10 percent of the entire relevant driver workforce.

Interim Result 2: Causes of the Driver Shortage

Over 40 causes for the shortage have been identified, which can be categorized into 8 groups. According to current findings, the situation at the interfaces before and after the transport process is particularly burdensome for drivers. The ranking of the causes will contribute to the development of concrete measures.

Interim Result 3: Effects of the Driver Shortage

The shortage of drivers currently shows over 20 effects that directly affect transport companies and indirectly their customers. Notably, there have been significantly above-average wage increases in the past 3-5 years. Measuring these effects will help in deciding on suitable measures against the driver shortage.

The Next Steps

In the fall, the results of the study will first be discussed within the consortium and then presented to the public. For the first time, well-founded figures, data, and facts on the driver shortage in Germany, its causes, and effects will be available – linked with measures to alleviate this shortage.

The final results will be published at the end of 2022. In advance, partial results will be continuously provided at: https://logistik-digitalisierung.de/

The Consortium Partners:

Platinum:

• JITpay
• KRAVAG
• TIMOCOM

Gold:

• CTL Cargo Trans Logistik AG
• Fahrzeugwerk Bernard Krone GmbH & Co. KG
• Seifert Logistics GmbH
• Transco Süd Internationale Transporte GmbH

Silver:

• Barth Spedition GmbH
• BTK Befrachtungs- und Transportkontor GmbH
• Hans Geis GmbH + Co KG
• Geberit Logistik GmbH
• GROUP7 GmbH
• Güttler Logistik GmbH
• Ludwig Meyer GmbH & Co. KG
• Miele & Cie. KG
• REWE Markt GmbH

The study project is supported by the following ideological partners:

• Federal Association of Goods Transport, Logistics, and Disposal (BGL) e. V.
• Federal Association of Forwarding and Logistics (DSLV) e. V.
• Federal Association of Economy, Transport, and Logistics (BWVL) e. V.
• Federal Association for Logistics (BVL) e. V.
• Trade Association Germany – HDE e. V.

and

• JOBMATCH.ME

Photo: © Loginfo24/Adobe Stock